Behind the Numbers

Simon Tremblay-Pepin’s Blog Posts

2012 Québec Budget: timidity and omissions

March 23rd, 2012 · Simon Tremblay-Pepin · No Comments · Quebec

On March 20th, Québec’s Finance Minister, Raymond Bachand, tabled his third budget. This budget year follows in the wake of those of the last few years. The government is still insisting on transforming public service funding in accordance with the user-fee revolution logic (so dear to Mr. Bachand’s heart), developing the Plan Nord, and reforming the pension plan.

Limited royalties

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Meet François Legault, possibly the next premier of Québec

January 24th, 2012 · Simon Tremblay-Pepin · No Comments · Quebec

Some major turn-rounds are radically changing the political situation in Québec. Even from within the province, things remain unclear and it all changes very quickly. Within the span of a few months, a party was born, the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ), a major crisis has shaken the Parti québécois, and the Action démocratique du Québec (ADQ) will disappear, swallowed by the CAQ. Let’s follow the career path of François Legault, leader of the brand new CAQ and credited with a substantial lead in polls, to understand who might become Québec’s next premier.

The ex-minister

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Understanding Québec’s Orange Wave Part Three: What Does the Orange Wave Mean?

July 28th, 2011 · Simon Tremblay-Pepin · 4 Comments · Federal Election 2011

Simon Tremblay-Pepin is a researcher at IRIS, a Montreal-based progressive think tank.

In my previous two posts I discussed how neither a rise in left-wing sentiment nor a surge in support for the federalist option caused the “orange wave” in Québec during the last federal election.

I will now offer my analysis of what happened during the federal election with regard to the outcome of the vote and, more specifically, suggest a number of  issues on which progressives from Québec and Canada can collaborate in the context of a Conservative majority government.

May 2nd election in Québec

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Understanding Québec’s Orange Wave Part Two: Welcome back to Canada?

July 27th, 2011 · Simon Tremblay-Pepin · No Comments · Federal Election 2011, Quebec

Simon Tremblay-Pepin is a researcher at IRIS, a Montreal-based progressive think tank.

In my previous post, I addressed how Québec was not reinventing itself as a socialist haven. I will now attempt to show that the NDP’s impressive showing in Québec does not indicate a rejection of sovereignty.

What does Québec want?

If the NDP’s Quebec surge corresponded with a loss of steam in sovereigntist support, we might expect to see dwindling numbers of Quebecers willing to vote in favor of Québec’s separation from Canada. But is that the case?

Chart 1: In favour of sovereignty from November 2008 to May 2011

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Understanding Québec’s Orange Wave Part One: A Socialist Haven?

July 26th, 2011 · Simon Tremblay-Pepin · 4 Comments · Federal Election 2011, Quebec

Simon Tremblay-Pepin is a researcher at IRIS a Montreal-based left-wing think tank.

From an outsider’s point of view, the last federal election may give the impression that a majority of Québécois(es) have converted to social democracy and asymmetrical federalism. This analysis aims to demonstrate the shortcomings of such an interpretation, without diminishing any hopes about the potential collaboration between progressives in Québec and the rest of Canada.

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