Behind the Numbers

Armine Yalnizyan’s Blog Posts

Armine Yalnizyan is a Senior Economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (http://www.policyalternatives.ca).

Polozogistics: Nine Thoughts About the Choice of the New Bank of Canada Governor

May 3rd, 2013 · Armine Yalnizyan · No Comments · Economy & Economic Indicators, Employment and Labour, Household Debt, Income Inequality, International Trade and Investment

 

1. He’s Number Two: Stephen Poloz was widely acknowledged in economic and political circles as the second-best choice for the top job at the Bank of Canada. So the surprise was not that he was chosen. The surprise was, Why Not Tiff Macklem? Will someone please find out and tell the rest of us?

2. Doctrinaire [or not?] on Inflation Targeting: He thinks it’s “sacrosanct.” Having studied with monetary policy guru David Laidler at the University of Western Ontario, and been part of the Bank of Canada team that brought inflation targeting to a neighbourhood near you, he got the religion all right. Believers are more inclined to see a “rising inflation” problem that isn’t there. The hazard: Pulling the rising-interest-rate trigger too soon and choking off recovery.

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Women On Top, By The Numbers

March 8th, 2013 · Armine Yalnizyan · No Comments · Economy & Economic Indicators, Gender Equality, Income Inequality

On the occasion of International Women’s Day, we ask: Are more women making it to the top in Canada? And what does that mean for the 100 per cent? The 2013 edition, by the numbers. (All data are most recently available statistics.)

1 out of 5: 21 per cent of the people in the top 1 per cent of income earners were women 2010 (total incomes over $201,400). In 1982: 1 in 10 (11 per cent) Source

18 per cent: Women’s share of income of the top 1 per cent in 2010. In 1982: 11 per cent Source

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Boost the Minimum Wage, Boost the Economy, from the bottom up

February 27th, 2013 · Armine Yalnizyan · 1 Comment · Alberta, British Columbia, Economy & Economic Indicators, Maritime Provinces, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Poverty and Income Inequality, Quebec, Saskatchewan

version of this article appeared today in the Globe and Mail’s Economy Lab.

(This version includes references to the debate plus charts and graphs from data specially tabulated from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey. The data don’t include the self-employed.)

President Obama put the idea of raising the minimum wage on the radar in the U.S. It deserves to be on the radar in Canada too.  That’s because low-wage work is on the rise.

Obama says raising the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $9 an hour is good for families dependent on low-wage jobs, and for businesses dependent on more consumer power to fuel their growth. A growing economy helps balance the books too.

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Why the Income Inequality Deniers are Wrong

December 21st, 2012 · Armine Yalnizyan · 1 Comment · Income Inequality

This article was published in an abridged form in the National Post. I like this opening better, so I posted it here.

You couldn’t have made it through 2012 without running into a story about income inequality.  Chances are, it made you think about how you fit into the story.  That’s “entirely constructive”, as Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney called the awakening triggered by the global Occupy movement.

A year later, some people think it’s time you go back to sleep.  A new debate is emerging in Canada: is inequality worth discussing at all?  On the “no” side are four main arguments, all deeply flawed:

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Welcome to the Wageless Recovery

November 2nd, 2012 · Armine Yalnizyan · No Comments · Economy & Economic Indicators, Employment and Labour, Uncategorized

The Harper government likes to remind Canadians that we’ve done better than most developed nations in bouncing back from the global economic crisis. But digging into the data shows why many people might be having trouble cheering this news: wages have not kept pace with inflation, and new hires are making 40 per cent less than the average worker.

Tiff Macklem, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, recently brought home the official storyline: The level of employment is now higher than it was before the crisis; jobs are mostly being created in the private sector, most are full-time and are emerging in industries that pay above-average wages.

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Happy Crashiversary! Are you better off now than you were four years ago?

September 14th, 2012 · Armine Yalnizyan · No Comments · Democracy, Economy & Economic Indicators, Federal Budget, Ontario, Poverty and Income Inequality

Four years after Lehman Brothers collapsed, it’s time to take stock of things by asking a stock political question: Are you better off now than you were four years ago?

Where you stand on the answer depends on where you sit. Many people, businesses and communities are still struggling to regain the ground they lost after September 15, 2008, the day the giant investment banker filed for bankruptcy and triggered the biggest global financial and economic crisis since the 1930s. But for others, things have never been better.

For Canada as a whole, the top line numbers are good, as we’ve heard repeatedly from Ottawa.

Gross domestic product is higher than during the fall of 2008, and more people are employed. But take a look under the hood, and you’ll see how that has been driven by commodities and their rising prices. That’s because globally there has been more demand than supply as the supply chain expanded, and Canada has what the world wants when it’s growing. But emerging economies are slowing down, and that puts Canada’s better-than-most growth at risk.

The head count on employment may be up, but four out of five of the new positions added to job market since the crisis began are temporary. We now have fewer young people (aged 15-24) working than at the worst point of the recession (summer of 2009), though there are more people now in that age cohort. Both trends do not bode well for the future.

In addition to the performance of the market is the performance of government. Taken together, the policy measures undertaken by government net out to accentuate – rather than mitigate – the widening gap between the haves and the have-nots over the past four years.

Without question Canada has done much better than the U.S., which is burdened by higher jobless rates; falling middle class incomes ; andpoverty rates stuck at record highs even though more people are working now than two years ago. High and still rising levels of income inequality seem irreversible, with the top 1 per cent having accounted for 93 per cent of all income gains since the recovery began.

So, yes, Canada is doing better than the U.S., four years on. But the comparison is not apt. In the fall of 2008 we were in a very different place when it came to overleveraged consumers and businesses — and government deficits.

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The Right Response To “No Job Is A Bad Job”

August 17th, 2012 · Armine Yalnizyan · 1 Comment · Employment and Labour, Human Rights, Ontario, Poverty and Income Inequality

Last May federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said there was no such thing as a bad job. The Law Commission of Ontario may disagree.

This week it put out a report about the rise in vulnerable workers and precarious jobs. Now that he’s heard from executives who think Canadians are paid too much, Mr. Flaherty should consider the other side of the story, and the suggested fix.

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Baskin-Robbins and the Walmartization of Ice Cream

July 20th, 2012 · Armine Yalnizyan · 1 Comment · Employment and Labour, International Trade and Investment

It’s been an unusually hot summer, and soaring temperatures have boosted sales of that quintessential summer food, ice cream. But Baskin-Robbins has decided to shut its production facility in Peterborough, Ont., and lay off 80 workers because of…wait for it… increased demand!

From the department of “wait, what?”, here’s the scoop behind this brain-freeze-inducing decision.

Baskin-Robbins, home of 31 flavours (one for each day of the month), brought in $1.8-billion in sales from its 6,777 outlets around the world last year. Same-store sales rose by an impressive 9.4 per cent in the first quarter 2012, and that’s before the heat wave.

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While You Were Sleeping: Fed Policies Make It Easier to Hire a Cheaper You

May 3rd, 2012 · Armine Yalnizyan · 4 Comments · Democracy, Employment and Labour, Immigration, Poverty and Income Inequality

 A shorter version of this article appeared today in the Globe and Mail’s Economy Lab

Have you noticed how common it has become to talk about replacing workers with even cheaper workers? If you’re looking over your shoulder, you’re not paranoid; you’re paying attention. There’s probably a cheaper you out there.  And in Canada, the feds are helping your boss find them.

This week, the International Labour Organization noted there are 50 million fewer jobs in the global economy than before the financial crisis began in 2008.  Some 200 million people are now looking for work, and many of them are on the move. Some have landed here.

But with 1.4 million unemployed, many Canadians, too, are desperately seeking opportunity, and trying to avoid losing economic ground.  As manufacturers continue to decamp to low-wage climes, and the public sector sheds jobs, the job options are sliding down the income scale. There, the growing competition is pushing the pay floor lower and lower.

Why? Canada, oddly, has welcomed newcomers in record numbers throughout a recession even as unemployment rates spiked. But our policies are shifting, and with it the type of labour market and society we are creating.  Today, the preferential nod is being given to a soaring number of temporary foreign workers, or “guest” workers. Make no mistake: These are people who are brought here at the pleasure of employers, and stay at the pleasure of employers.

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Who’s a bigger drag on Canada’s future? The old or the young?

April 11th, 2012 · Armine Yalnizyan · 2 Comments · Economy & Economic Indicators, Employment and Labour, Youth

This is my latest column for Canadian Business magazine. 

Giorgio, a hard-working, smart-as-a-whip University of Toronto student, asked me a great question after a recent guest lecture: What if the biggest challenge facing Canadian businesses and governments in the coming years isn’t an aging society but the economic and fiscal drag of hundreds of thousands of young people who can’t find meaningful work?

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